As exports to the Ottoman Empire increased, East African exports to other countries were equally impressive. Apart from the Balkan Peninsula, numerous countries worldwide actively prepared for war; the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Austria-Hungary, Russia, the United States, Japan, including East Africa itself, all expanded military equipment upon entering the 20th century.

Beyond the large-scale arms race among the Great Powers, the imperialist frenzy to carve up the world that began in the late 1890s also spurred non-Great Power countries to invest in the military field.

Thus, at the beginning of the 20th century, signs of war appeared worldwide, with a looming war cloud having quietly brewed for nearly twenty years. The storm’s center was Europe.

The only Great Powers able to remain steady were the United States, East Africa, and Japan. These countries had few strong enemies nearby, but Japan clearly embarked on a military expansion path entirely different from that of the United States and East Africa, not pouring all efforts into economic development.

While East Africa sent strategic materials to the Ottoman Empire, orders in other regions were also active. Many resources needed by Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Russia required importation from East Africa, focusing on non-ferrous metals, internal combustion vehicles, electricity, communications, tropical agricultural products, and various fields.

In contrast, England and France could obtain many critical war materials through their colonies, such as cotton, rubber, sugar, and other essentials, relying less on East Africa. East African imports were mainly internal combustion vehicles, electricity equipment, and other industrial products.

In East Africa’s foreign trade, Germany and Russia ranked first and second, with Austria-Hungary third, followed by the Far East Empire, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France.

...

In October 1912, the Balkan League was officially formed by Bulgaria, Serbia, Greece, and Black Mountain, thus completing the anti-Ottoman Empire consolidation on the Balkan Peninsula.

The Balkan League had over 700,000 troops and more than 1,000 cannons, while the Ottoman Empire also had over 700,000 troops, and the cannon count was about the same as the Balkan League. 𝓯𝙧𝓮𝓮𝒘𝓮𝙗𝙣𝒐𝒗𝒆𝓵.𝓬𝓸𝒎

Although East Africa conducted related trade with the Ottoman Empire, the Ottoman Empire’s government did not immediately transfer acquired materials to the European front. From the Persian Gulf to Europe, only a land route led chiefly by the Baghdad Railway could be achieved, an undoubtedly challenging task for the Ottoman conquest.

The Balkan League issued a final ultimatum to the Ottoman Empire’s government, demanding that the Ottoman Empire allow Macedonia and Tres’s various ethnic groups autonomy according to the 1878 Berlin Treaty, which the Ottoman Empire government outright refused.

Before October 20, 1912, the Balkan League successively declared war on the Ottoman Empire, igniting the First Balkan War, wherein the Balkan League exhibited strong war potential, gaining significant advantages immediately upon commencing the war.

Rhein City.

The war potential of the Balkan countries was quite shocking for the East African military. The mobilization of over 700,000 troops from four Eastern European small countries nearly doubled East Africa’s army size before expansion.

Merk: "In the Balkan League, the most populous Bulgaria had only four million people, yet mobilized over 300,000 troops. Even Black Mountain, with only a few hundred thousand inhabitants, organized an army of tens of thousands."

"The entire Balkan League’s population is less than ten million, merely one-third that of the Ottoman Empire, yet gathered more troops than the Ottoman Empire, with both sides’ total troops exceeding one million. This constitutes the largest-scale war in Europe’s region in recent years!"

Since the end of the Prussian War, Europe hasn’t seen a massive war, and forty years have passed since the Prussian War, so Merk’s statement isn’t without reason.

Sivert: "Behind the Balkan League are supports from England, France, and Russia, thereby completing expansion and military preparation. As for the Ottoman Empire, Germany hasn’t provided corresponding support, instead letting the Ottoman Empire fall behind."

The Balkan League’s actual strength isn’t much more robust than the Ottoman Empire; neither side has established a complete industry, thus relying mostly on external forces’ support for military expansion.

Ernst said: "Given the current situation, this battle would significantly disadvantage the Ottoman Empire, but that’s precisely what we hope to see. After all, the more dramatically the Ottoman Empire falls during the war, the easier it will be for us to penetrate it."

In Ernst’s heart, if the Ottoman Empire doesn’t lose miserably, it’s unfavorable for Germany to ally with the Ottoman Empire. Germany’s diplomacy is in disarray; besides Austria-Hungary, most other major European nations have become enemies. The absence of Italy further weakens Germany’s theoretical strength, possibly affecting Germany’s future confidence in war.

And if Germany doesn’t launch a war, it would be significantly detrimental to East Africa now. Therefore, Ernst hopes the Ottoman Empire could replace Italy, giving Germany confidence in war; any mention of East African penetration into the Ottoman Empire is merely a pretext, not Ernst’s genuine thought.

Given the Ottoman Empire’s situation, even divine intervention is challenging, yet it remains better for Germany than Italy did before jumping to the Allies’ camp before the battle began, at least ensuring Germany’s military actions won’t be significantly affected by allies’ betrayal.

Sensibly, Ernst hopes Germany will achieve ultimate victory, but reason tells him that this is nearly impossible.

Given East Africa’s inability to participate in the war, Ernst doesn’t regard Germany’s future optimistically, nor can East Africa join the war solely for Germany’s future.

Even if East Africa joined, the final result would likely be three against four, or even three against five. The United Kingdom could, at the final stage, bribe the United States and Japan to suppress East Africa’s military actions.

In the Allies’ camp, only Germany performs reasonably, while Austria-Hungary’s previous performance makes Ernst strongly distrust their potential for victory.

East Africa must guard against the United States; based on national strength comparisons, the United States still ranks above East Africa, where any erroneous choice could lead East Africa into an unfavorable competitive position against the United States.

Of course, if Germany achieved more glorious results than in previous life’s war, East Africa might turn to Germany’s camp at the end of the war, but that’s nearly impossible.

The First World War was a lengthy attrition war, where England and France held significant advantages over Germany. Unless Germany could, like in the Second World War, defeat France early, failure to achieve this would leave Germany in a stalemate, significantly unfavorable to Germany.

Thus, East Africa’s final decision depends largely on the European battlefield’s situation changes after war onset. Unless one side gains a clear advantage, East Africa is unlikely to participate.

This isn’t unreasonable; historically, the First World War saw nations joining the war gradually, like both the Ottoman Empire and United States later joining. Most countries initially chose to watch coldly.

The United Kingdom was no exception, formally declaring war on Germany only after the war with France and Germany had commenced, and Romania remained neutral in the early stages, later joining the Allies. European countries operated similarly; as a non-European state, East Africa is even less likely to participate before the war broke out or mid-war.

This round of the Balkan War could be viewed as a prelude to the First World War, representing multi-power struggles behind the scenes. After mostly driving Ottoman Empire’s forces off the Balkan Peninsula, the primary conflict on the Balkan Peninsula would shift to tension between Russia and Austria-Hungary.

After this round of war, Russia’s influence on the Balkan Peninsula would further increase, a prospect clearly undesirable for Austria-Hungary. Russia only needs to support countries like Serbia, sufficing to push Austria-Hungary into a disadvantage. Thus, the conflict between Austria-Hungary and Russia would precede the outbreak of tensions between Germany and France.