A Wall Street Genius's Final Investment Playbook-Chapter 155

As soon as I finished speaking, a brief silence filled the room.

The eyes of the sovereign wealth fund officials were filled with doubt.

‘Well, of course.'

An algorithm that predicts black swan events—it wouldn’t be easy to accept.

A Saudi sovereign wealth fund official calmly asked,

“The essence of a black swan lies in its unpredictability. It refers to unprecedented events that cannot be captured by historical patterns or data, nor do they follow a linear flow. How can you claim to predict an event that has no data or pattern?”

His point was not wrong.

Black swans are usually recognized only after they have already occurred.

Claiming to foresee them with an algorithm would inevitably sound superstitious.

But I could truly predict them.

Of course,

‘Because I’ve already seen them.’

I had personally experienced them in the past.

However, since I couldn’t exactly say I came from the future, I had to wrap this unrealistic truth in a plausible theory.

“Our algorithm does not rely on conventional market patterns or past data. Instead, it is designed to detect minute anomalies within various alternative data sources. It finds order within chaos, meaningful signals within randomness. The subtle tremors of the market, FDA decisions, the subsequent judgments of market participants, the flow of capital, tiny shifts in trends… all these factors are intricately interconnected, and our algorithm captures those connections…”

Even spouting nonsense that I didn’t believe myself in a convincing manner wasn’t easy.

After rambling for a while, I finally played my decisive card.

“No matter how much I explain, words have their limits. When it comes to proving a black swan, actual cases speak louder than theories. As I mentioned earlier, we have already successfully predicted two such events.”

A slight stir ran through the room.

No one present was unaware of the two incidents I referred to.

“Could it be… Genesis and Theranos?”

“That’s correct.”

Genesis, whose stock price skyrocketed due to the early termination of clinical trials, and Theranos, one of the greatest frauds in history.

Both were events that defied conventional predictions, would not be repeated, and sent massive, unforeseen shockwaves through the market.

They were undeniably black swans.

However,

The people in this room were not ordinary investors.

They were individuals who had managed astronomical sums of capital for years.

They wouldn’t be easily swayed by just two cases.

This time, the representative of Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund fixed me with a sharp gaze and asked,

“Isn’t that just retrospective analysis? Claiming credit for an algorithm’s success after the event has already occurred does not serve as proper proof.”

It was a reasonable doubt to raise.

I nodded as if I agreed.

“That’s true. No matter what I say now, such skepticism will persist. So this time, I intend to take a different approach.”

“A different approach?”

“Yes. I will tell you in advance about the next black swan that our algorithm has predicted. If that event actually occurs, wouldn’t that change your perspective?”

For a moment, silence fell over the conference room.

No one refuted it this time.

Everyone recognized that such an approach would serve as undeniable proof.

“The next black swan… Sounds interesting. What is it?”

Someone asked casually, but I only responded with a meaningful smile.

“That information can only be disclosed to investors. However, what I can tell you now is that it will be an unmistakable black swan.”

At my words, some of the officials furrowed their brows.

In other words, this information was ‘not free.’

They had to invest in my fund to learn about it.

“How can we invest without even hearing the details?”

A sharp question was thrown at me, but I answered calmly.

“If you hear the details, you will be even less inclined to invest. That is the very nature of a black swan, isn’t it?”

Until a black swan appears before their eyes, people believe that all swans are white.

This field was inherently prone to such cognitive biases.

No matter how convincing my reasoning sounded, breaking their preconceived notions would be difficult.

Until the prediction actually came true, no explanation would be effective.

A heavy silence filled the room.

I broke the stillness and spoke quietly.

“Of course, I’m not forcing anyone to invest. Those who wish to continue listening may stay, and those who find this meaningless are free to leave.”

Again, silence.

No one left.

Had I been pitching an ordinary healthcare fund, some of them would have already left the room.

But a black swan was different.

‘They should still have funds left for allocation.’

Sovereign wealth funds follow strict asset allocation principles.

They distribute capital across sectors like technology and healthcare in predetermined ratios.

In addition, they operate special portfolios for non-correlated assets and extreme risk hedging—black swan investments fell into this category.

Funds targeting such a niche were rare.

So, there should still be capital available for this allocation.

‘And from a risk management perspective, they can’t ignore this either.’

To sovereign wealth fund managers, black swans held a unique significance.

Considering their assets, which approached one trillion dollars, they were effectively invested across the entire market.

In such a scenario, their greatest fear was systemic risk.

A catastrophe that would shake the entire market.

Like the 2008 financial crisis.

They had placed their eggs in thousands of different baskets, only to have an earthquake destroy the entire region, breaking all the eggs at once.

Could they really afford to ignore someone claiming to predict such a black swan?

Then, breaking the silence, a sharp question was asked.

“What is the minimum investment amount?”

It wasn’t an overwhelming commitment, but it implied they were at least considering placing a small bet.

That was fine.

That was exactly what I was aiming for right now.

“One million dollars.”

For them, that was mere pocket change.

“When is the deadline?”

“Within six weeks or based on assets under management (AUM). We plan to soft close at $8 billion and hard close at $11.3 billion.”

A soft close means that from that point onward, the fund will not accept new external capital, and only existing investors will be allowed to increase their investments.

A hard close means the fund will completely shut its doors and accept no further capital.

In other words, at $8 billion, the fund would be closed to outsiders, allowing only existing investors to add more funds.

“How much capital has been secured so far?”

“Verbal commitments totaling $8 billion.”

This effectively meant that if they didn’t invest now, they might not be able to do so later.

I glanced at the artwork on my wrist, estimating the time to wrap things up.

“Our time in this room is almost up. Can I assume that everyone remaining is interested in investing?”

There was no verbal response, but no one left their seat.

I slowly opened my mouth.

“The next black swan is…”

***

Meanwhile, the area outside the conference room was buzzing with activity.

A particular crowd had gathered near Ha Si-heon’s ‘booth.’

Outwardly, they appeared to be engaged in casual hallway conversations, but their eyes kept glancing toward the booth’s door.

Through the glass window in the center of the door, they could vaguely sense the atmosphere inside, though they couldn’t hear the conversation.

This only made them more curious.

“The meeting is taking longer than expected.”

“Their expressions look… unusual.”

“What kind of discussion could be taking this long?”

Inside Ha Si-heon’s room, representatives from the world’s top 20 sovereign wealth funds were gathered.

Heavyweights in global asset management—Saudi’s Public Investment Fund, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and Singapore’s GIC—had all come together in one place, an extremely rare occurrence.

This only fueled curiosity further.

Meanwhile, some institutional representatives, whose scheduled meetings had been abruptly canceled, had mixed feelings.

‘A mere startup fund… Dared to cancel a meeting with us?’

At first, they were irritated and resolved never to engage with Ha Si-heon again. ƒreewebηoveℓ.com

But seeing how things were unfolding, something felt different.

Their initial frustration slowly turned into curiosity, and soon that curiosity morphed into the desire for profit.

What on earth was happening inside that room?

A private briefing attended only by top financial players—it was clear that crucial information was being exchanged.

Then—

BANG!

The door suddenly burst open, and the attendees poured out.

“We’ll send you the term sheet draft by the end of the day.”

A moment later, an associate from Goldman shouted from behind.

Writing a term sheet meant that the investment was essentially confirmed.

……

‘Why do they look so strange?’

The people emerging from Ha Si-heon’s booth all wore puzzled expressions.

There was no relief, no sense of achievement.

Rather than the exhilaration of discovering a great investment opportunity, their faces were filled with doubt.

“The meeting went on for quite a while. What happened in there?”

“No… Just a bit tired.”

They offered vague responses and forced awkward smiles.

Even after deciding to invest, why did they look like that?

But now wasn’t the time to dwell on that.

The representative from San Diego’s pension fund immediately approached Ha Si-heon with a friendly smile.

“Is your schedule done for the day?”

It was an attempt to secure another appointment if any free time was available.

But Ha Si-heon smiled politely and shook his head.

“Apologies, but I have external engagements and won’t be back until late tonight.”

“Then how about tomorrow…?”

“That’s something you’ll need to discuss with them.”

Ha Si-heon gestured toward his associate before slipping away.

As the San Diego representative continued negotiating a meeting with the associate, Ha Si-heon disappeared.

They had hoped to gather clues by speaking with him directly, but even after scouring the venue, there was no sign of him.

‘In that case…’

They had to change strategies.

Instead of going after Ha Si-heon, they decided to target others who had attended the meeting.

The pension fund representative approached some of the attendees spotted during the speaker sessions.

However—

“Haha, nothing much. It’s just a fund with a unique investment strategy.”

“I only attended as a favor to an acquaintance.”

They were generally tight-lipped.

But even in that, there was a hint.

‘Not personal curiosity, but attending as a favor?’

That meant someone at a higher level had taken interest.

That made it all the more worth digging into.

However, extracting information wouldn’t be easy.

By now, rumors about Ha Si-heon’s mysterious meeting had spread throughout the venue.

Institutional investors, family offices, high-net-worth individuals, and hedge funds—everyone was scrambling for the same information.

But the San Diego pension fund representative had his own methods.

“I’ve been sitting for too long. How about a game of racquetball?”

He approached an Abu Dhabi Investment Authority official with whom he had played before.

Away from prying eyes, they played three intense rounds before retreating to the spa, where they could speak privately.

Then, cautiously, the San Diego representative broached the topic.

“Something seems to be on your mind today. You seemed distracted during the game…”

The Abu Dhabi official hesitated briefly before speaking.

“It’s nothing. It’s just… I heard something unusual.”

At last, the San Diego representative got a glimpse of what Ha Si-heon had told the sovereign wealth funds.

“Ha Si-heon. He claimed he could predict black swan events… And he warned of an imminent, massive pandemic.”

“What? A pandemic?”

“Yes. He said a pandemic so severe that it would paralyze society and the economy was coming soon.”

The San Diego representative’s expression gradually mirrored those of the sovereign wealth fund officials from earlier.

“What… That sounds like a science fiction novel.”

“Exactly. He even claimed that an entire city would go into lockdown.”

To be fair, concerns about pandemics had been raised for years.

With increasing globalization, the risk of a highly infectious disease sweeping the world was always present.

SARS and MERS had already sparked such fears in the past.

But thankfully, those cases had been relatively contained, and the investment industry no longer considered pandemics a major concern.

“But… Even after hearing that, you still decided to invest? Just because of some hypothetical pandemic?”

“Haha…”

The Abu Dhabi official merely chuckled.

For sovereign wealth funds, allocating a portion of their capital as a precaution wasn’t unusual.

‘Not for profit, but for risk management…’

The real question was whether they, too, should invest.

Normally, they would have dismissed such claims.

But what if the person making the prediction had correctly foreseen Genesis and Theranos?

And what if not just one, but multiple major sovereign wealth funds were buying in?

As the San Diego representative mulled over these thoughts, the Abu Dhabi official suddenly let out a quiet laugh.

“You know… It’s not just a vague prediction. He said we’ll start seeing the signs within a month or two.”

“What? Within one or two months?”

A possibility flashed through the San Diego representative’s mind.

“Could it be… Because of the Ebola virus?”

The Ebola outbreak in West Africa had already claimed over 10,000 lives and was a growing international concern.

But—

“There haven’t been any indications yet.”

Despite the ongoing crisis, the market had remained relatively calm.

Airline and travel stocks had been hit, and there was some impact on commodities, but the consensus was that the overall economic effect would be limited.

The Abu Dhabi official looked conflicted before continuing.

“Exactly. But according to him, panic will hit within the next couple of months.”

“What?”

“And…”

The Abu Dhabi official paused, then let out a hollow laugh before speaking again.

“He said… Hazmat suits will sell out.”

Hazmat suits—protective gear worn in hazardous environments.

Typically used in chemical spills or radioactive contamination.

But…

Would there really be a situation where they’d be needed on such a large scale?

The San Diego representative finally let out a chuckle.

“This really does sound like a sci-fi movie. There’s no way something like that could actually happen.”